Homeland Security Risk Analyst's Workbench (HS-RAW)

Abstract
Formal quantitative risk analysis has long been employed for assessing risk and defending against mechanical system failure, natural disasters, and project failure or delay. With heightened interest in vulnerability to terrorism, many researchers have begun adapting these traditional tools to help assess and defend against terrorist threats. Unfortunately, because this area of research is relatively new -- particularly in the area of adversarial threat analysis -- the maturity and availability of these tools is limited, and the ability of researchers to share information and collaborate using a commonly recognized format has yet to be achieved.

We are developing a system -- called the “risk analyst workbench” -- that helps risk analysts assess potential strategies for countering terrorist threats. The tool bench is capable of integrating different risk and consequence models in a common user and data set management interface. The user interface allows for creation and specification of new scenarios and models for analysis, management of existing scenarios, and sharing of scenarios among multiple analysts. Behind the user interface are hooks into simulations/analysis engines from outside the system. The hooks allow for a common user interface that specifies parameters for the various engines as well as a common style for connecting archived and current data. In the future, the system will support adding and configuring engines, and will alert the analyst if new data relevant to the model are available.

By collaboratively integrating their models and data, analysts can perform far more complicated assessments, far more quickly, than previously possible.