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Q] packet error rate



Hi.

I have a question about error rate.
To generate packet error, I used Twostate error model and its random
variables are exponential RV with mean 200 , 4 ,respectively.

error-free length is 200, and error length is 4.
So, I think that the mean pkt error rate would be 4/204 = 0.0196=1.9%.
But simulations result in 2.4%.
I have generated enough pkts ( >100000 ).
I have ran simulations so many times.
and random seed was used.

Is expecting 4/204 of pkt error rate wrong?
help me.

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