Abstract

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in common use predict the logarithmic intensity of ground shaking, lnY, as a deterministic value, lnYpred (x), conditioned on a set of explanatory variables x plus a normally distributed random variable with a standard deviation σT. The latter accounts for the unexplained variability in the ground motion data used to calibrate the GMPE and is typically 0.5-0.7 in natural log units. Reducing this residual or" aleatory" variability is a high priority for seismic hazard analysis, because the probabilities of exceedance at high Y values go up rapidly with σT. adding costs to the seismic design of critical facilities to account for the prediction uncertainty. However, attempts to decrease σT by incorporating more explanatory variables to the GMPEs have been largely unsuccessful (eg, Strasser et al., SRL, 2009). An alternative is to employ physics-based earthquake simulations that …

Date

January 1, 1970

Authors

Thomas H Jordan, Feng Wang, Robert W Graves, Scott Callaghan, Kim Bak Olsen, Yifeng Cui, Kevin R Milner, Gideon Juve, Karan Vahi, John Yu, Ewa Deelman, David Gill, Philip J Maechling

Journal

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts

Volume

2015

Pages

S41C-01