Abstract

Earthquake simulation has the potential to substantially improve seismic hazard and risk forecasting, but the practicality of using simulation results is limited by the scale and complexity of the computations. Here we will focus on the experience of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) in applying workflow management tools to facilitate physics-based seismic hazard analysis. This system-level problem can be partitioned into a series of computational pathways according to causal sequences described in terms of conditional probabilities. For example, the exceedance probabilities of shaking intensities at geographically distributed sites conditional on a particular fault rupture (a ground motion prediction model or GMPM) can be combined with the probabilities of different ruptures (an earthquake rupture forecast or ERF) to create a seismic hazard map. Deterministic simulations of ground motions from …

Date

January 1, 1970

Authors

TH Jordan, S Callaghan, PJ Maechling, G Juve, E Deelman, M Rynge, K Vahi, F Silva

Journal

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts

Volume

2012

Pages

IN54B-07