Abstract

Variations in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) have long been hypothesized to influence global mean surface temperature (GMST) on multidecadal to millennial timescales, but empirical evidence has remained elusive. Here, we explore the link between solar variability and climate over the pre‐industrial Holocene, when anthropogenic influences were minimal, using the causal inference framework of Convergent Cross‐Mapping. We analyze pairings of two temperature targets (a GMST reconstruction and the central Greenland GISP2 record) with two TSI reconstructions across a range of timescales. Our results indicate a discernible influence of TSI on temperature in ∼80% of parameter configurations: stronger but less consistently significant for GISP2, weaker but consistently significant for the global mean. This suggests that solar forcing was a minor–but detectable–driver of global Holocene climate fluctuations, an …

Date

2026

Authors

Jordan P Landers, Julien Emile‐Geay, Alexander K James, Stephan B Munch, Deborah Khider, Edouard Bard

Journal

Geophysical Research Letters

Volume

53

Issue

17

Pages

e2025GL121120